人民币，升值
An exchange rate that is de facto fixed has served China well over the last eight years.Nevertheless,four major reasons have been given to suggest that it may now be time to allow the yuan to appreciate.First,calculations based on the Balassa-Samuelson relationship suggest that the real value of the renminbi is(and has for some time been)low–not just low compared to the U.S.dollar or other rich countries,but substantially bellow even the equilibrium value for a country at China’s stage of development. Second,although history shows that foreign exchange reserves are a useful shield against currency crises.China’s level of balance of payments surplus and reserve acquisition has by now been very high for several years,so that the country is currently giving up a lot when it buys(low-return)US treasury securities with the proceeds it raises from(high return) inward investments. Third,the domestic economy is in danger of overheating. While the necessary cooling off could be attempted through shrinkage of government spending,tighter domestic credit and higher interest rates rather than through a higher value of the currency-and China has started to make some a ppropriate efforts along these lines-a strategy that continues to exclude appreciation from the policy response mixwill become increasingly difficult.The country is inthe range where monetary inflows and inflation are likely to accelerate if the renminbi is not allowed to appreciate.Forth,a country as large as China probably requires and exchange rate regime with some flixibility,and the experience of other emerging markets suggests that it is better to exit from a peg when times are good and the currency is strong, than to wait until times are bad and the currency is under attack.