创业者的思维?

  “很多创业者进行自顶向下的预测:“美国有1亿5千万辆汽车。就算在第一年里只有1%的汽车装了我们的卫星收音系统,那就是150万套系统。”而自底向上的预测是这样的:“在第一年里,我们能够开设10个安装点。每个安装点平均每天安装10套系统的话,第一年的销售量将是 10个安装点 × 10套/天/安装点 × 240天 = 24000 套。”24000和自顶向下中的150万保守估计仍然相去甚远。你们觉得哪一个更有可能实现呢?”  引用:http://chn.blogbeta.com/180.html

  我对这个问题的回答是,第二个方案更可能实现。现在做项目的理论家们几乎不离口地说“SMART原则”,虽然很烦他们这么JJYY的,但他们说的还是有道理的,特别是:量化。本例中第一种方案(A),是一种定性的分析,也是感性的想像,是朴素的本真的思维。而第二种方案(B),是理性的,可预见,是经过数量化后的思维。

  经常听到朋友们说,我做这个网站,适用于某某群体的人,这个群体能带来多少销售量。这是A式的思维,是我不支持的思维。潜在客户群体虽然很大,销售量很诱人,但这就比天上飞的风筝仅一条细线连着,不是高手是玩不好的。而换种思维来分析(一位朋友分析的,http://www.i-wo.com/),某网站,仅仅具有一个功能,如一个家用机游戏的论坛,xbox能带来几个用户,ps2能带来多少用户,psp能有多少用户,ps2比xbox用户多,ps2社区数量是xbox社区数量的多少倍。经过一段时间的推广,选择出拥有80%用户的20%的版面加强服务。

  “我们需要知道我们存在的人来为我们服务”(keso)。换句话,我们要为我们知道他们存在的人服务。首先我们要知道他们的存在,才能谈得上为他们服务,这是SMART中的“目标明确”。

  就这样,解决战斗,认真上班工作。http://www.i-wo.com/



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